Perturbation INVEST 96L en 2024

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201142
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Gordon, is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms more than a
thousand miles southwest of the Azores. Due to strong upper-level
winds, any additional development of this system is expected to be
slow to occur while it meanders over the central subtropical
Atlantic during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
about 650 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands has
changed little in organization over the past several hours.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some
development of this system during the next couple of days while it
drifts northwestward at about 5 mph over the central or western
subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by the early to middle
part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter,
gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or
northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern
Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


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