000
ABNT20 KNHC 020539
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Gradual development of this system is expected over the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week
while the system moves generally northward to northwestward over the
central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land
areas of the western Caribbean during the next few days, including
Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent.

Near the Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure extending from near Puerto Rico eastward
over the adjacent waters of the Atlantic is producing a large area
of showers and thunderstorms near and over portions of the Greater
Antilles and the Leeward Islands. Slow development is possible
during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles. Then, this system is
expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible during the next few days from the northern Leeward Islands
westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the
southeastern Bahamas. For more information on this system, including
gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.

North Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
near a low pressure system centered a few hundred miles
west-northwest of the Azores. Environmental conditions could allow
for additional development today and tonight, and the system could
become a short-lived subtropical or tropical storm while it moves
east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast
to become unfavorable for further development by late this weekend.
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system.
For more information, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


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